Mayday, says the Euro?

In response to the rising Coronavirus cases in Europe, the EUR/USD fell on Monday to 1.1731, a fresh September low.

Early today, it was seen to move away from moving averages on the 4 hour chart. The 20 day SMA seems to be gaining bearish strengths underneath the larger ones. Immediate support is at 1.1695, August Low.

In a related note, however, analysts at Citibank is forecast the EUR/USD pairing to be at 1.17 over a three month period and 1.22 in 6-12 months.

Below is a quote from Citibank:

“More medium term, relative real rate differentials continue to make new local highs (almost back to zero in EUR less USD), reducing the relative attractiveness of owning US dollars for investors. We still believe that the medium – long term likelihood of EUR/USD breaking 1.20 remains high, particular as US real  rates are unlikely to move materially higher given the Fed’s fresh mandate. Besides, hard data showed that the economic recovery continues.”