DAILY NOTION - FXEMPIRE - Crude Oil Price Forecast - Nov 16, 2020

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures are trading higher on Monday, helped by a report that showed China’s crude oil throughput rose 2.6% in October from a year earlier to its highest-ever level as fuel demand firmed on strong holiday travel.

At 08:05 (GMT), January WTI crude oil is at $41.35, up $0.95 or +2.35%

Prices are also being underpinned by hopes that OPEC+ will hold current output curbs, offsetting concerns about weaker fuel demand due to rising COVID-19 cases and higher production from Libya, but traders caution that gains could be limited since this news may have been fully-priced into the market.

What's next?

The direction of the January WTI crude oil market on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to $40.56.

For bullish scenario, a sustained move over $40.56 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this creates enough upside momentum then look for the rally to possibly extend into $41.83. Sellers could come in on the first test of this level, but overtaking it is likely to trigger an acceleration to the upside.

As for bearish scenario, a sustained move under $40.56 will signal the presence of sellers. Taking out the minor bottom at $40.33 will shift momentum to the downside. This could trigger a further break into the 50% level at $39.32.

Original analysis: https://www.fxempire.com/forec...