If you look at the long-term annual returns of this secular bull market (and we can start the clock on any number of dates), the returns so far are pretty “average” in terms of the long-term returns on large-cap stocks, i.e. the S&P 500.
The so-called Bible of return data is Ibbotson’s Stocks, Bonds, Bills & Inflation (SBBI) data, and although the data has gone underground thanks to its inclusion in the Morningstar Advisor workstation (as I understand it) and is not able to be purchased for advisor consumption, it still pops up on occasion.
The important metric found in the data was that for the 97 years from 1923 to 2020, the long-term “average” return for large-cap stocks (i.e. the proxy being the S&P 500) was roughly 12%-13% per year, over that timeframe.
While the last 9-10 years returns indicate that the new bull market is right in line with long-term average returns for the S&P 500, the decade from 1.1.2000 through 12.31.2009 dramatically lowered the long-term average returns and, another stat I found surprising was that the average, annual return for the last 20 years is still well below the long-term average of 12%-13%.
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