Natural Gas price is in a long-term downtrend after turning lower from its peak of $9.960 MMBtu achieved in August 2022. It continues to make lower lows, though bearish momentum has tapered off considerably since February 2023, as evidenced by the bullish convergence of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) momentum indicator since May. A bullish convergence occurs when price makes new lows but RSI fails to. It can indicate a propensity for price to rebound.
Nevertheless, unless Natural Gas can break above the last lower high of the long-term downtrend at $3.079 MMBtu, the odds continue to favor the bear trend, and shorts over longs.
A break below the $2.110 MMBtu year-to-date lows would solidify the bearish outlook and suggest a continuation down to a target at $1.546 MMBtu, the 61.8% Fibonacci extension of the height of the roughly sideways consolidation range that has unfolded during 2023.
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