Daily digest market movers: Rate differential moves market again

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  • The US economic calendar kicks off at 12:30 GMT with the Challenger Job Cuts report for February. The previous number was 82,307.
  • The European Central Bank rate decision will take place at 13:15 GMT, and Lagarde’s  press conference will start at 13:45 GMT. 
  • Weekly Jobless Claims are next, at 13:30 GMT:
    • Initial Claims are expected to remain stable at 215,000.
    • Continuing Claims are expected to fall from 1.905 million to 1.885 million. 
  • US trade data for January is set to be released as well at 13:30 GMT:
    • The Goods and Services Trade deficit is set to widen to $63.5 billion from $62.2 billion.
    • The Goods Trade deficit stood at $92.2 billion a month earlier, with no forecast available.
    • Unit Labor Costs data for Q4, also due at 13:30 GMT, are seen accelerating slightly  from 0.5% to 0.6%. Nonfarm Productivity for Q4 is seen heading from 3.2% to 3.1%.
  • US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell heads back to Capitol Hill for a second day of testimony before Congress. Comments are expected to come in around 15:00 GMT. 
  • Fed Cleveland President Loretta Mester will speak near 16:30 GMT. 
  • Equities are in the red after the blurry rate hike communication from the Bank of Japan (BoJ). BoJ members are unable to form a consensus on when to hike, which sees the Yen soaring and in its inverse correlation triggers selling in stock markets. All equity markets are down, from Japan over China and across Europe. Even the US futures are in red territory. 
  • According to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, expectations for a Fed pause in the March 20 meeting are at 95%, while chances of a rate cut stand at 5%. 
  • The benchmark 10-year US Treasury Note trades around 4.11%, the lowest level in over a week. 


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