EURO at critical level before Lagarde's speech

• EURUSD contained by 1.1160

• Overall bullish structure in peril 

The EURUSD is at a key level hours before President Lagarde's speech where we will finally have a look at the new President's ideas on monetary policies for the Euro Zone and most importantly her reaction to Mario Draghi's last stunt back in September 2019 where the ECB launched a new bon-buying program and cut its deposit rate to a record -0.5%. A dovish statement from Lagarde acompaigned with good retail sales from the US could be desastrous (in the short term) for the Euro, more so if the plan is to continue with the Central Bank intervention. 

Technically speaking the EURUSD has been in a bullish structure since it bottomed around 1.0880back in Octorber 2019, but the move since the beginning of the year (January 1st 2020) has been very bearish: -1.15% from top to bottom. Now the EURUSD has retraced back to a key level (1.1160) inside of a bearish flag to the 61.8% retracement of the last leg down. A break below 1.1145 would trigger a bearish continuation and a break of the flag could see us test the bullish structure (red channel) at around 1.1075 and further down to 1.1000 if bears take control. 

The opposite is true if we get a very hawkish statement from Lagarde and weak USD data. I{m leaning on the short side myself but not before the validation level gets hit.