EUR/AUD Weekly Outlook

EUR/AUD’s down trend continued last week and there is no sign of bottoming yet. Initial bias remains on the downside this week. Firm break of 100% projection of 1.6827 to 1.6122 from 1.6420 at 1.5715 will target 161.8% projection at 1.5279 next. On the upside, break of 1.5863 minor resistance will suggest short term bottoming. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for rebound.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that price actions from 1.9799 is developing into a deep correction, to long term up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low). Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.4733. Medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.6827 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

In the longer term picture rise from 1.1602 (2012 low) could have already completed with three waves up to 1.9799. The development suggests that long term range trading is extending with another medium term down leg. Sustained trading below 55 month EMA (now at 1.5847) now further affirms this case could bring deeper decline to 1.1602/3624 support zone.