‼️AUDUSD update, exp...來自Smart Jet

12 May 2023, 23:26 · 閱讀量 5,496

‼️AUDUSD update, expecting a lot more downside fundamentally on this but shorter term it’s about to dip into decent support and a pullback feels appropriate so taking profit here at market price and then we will look for more USD longs after a decent pullback‼️

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Smart Jet

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Morning traders, after two full days of lunches, dinners, and brainstorming with some quite substantially experienced fund managers I get the sentiment out there for the next 3 to 6 months is bearish indices, bullish the Dollar, and bullish the JPY, that didn't surprise me much as it's the classic recession trade, in other words, that has been the dominant topic of our debates, an upcoming recession That is the medium to long term sentiment that mostly came through in the discussions and I kinda resonate with that too, high rates sooner or later will feed through the economy and things will break leading to outflows from risk assets and inflows into safe haven Not much else to add to that, for now it's something too long term for us to act on it right away but I do keep in mind that the easier trades heading into the summer will probably be USD longs and JPY longs

Smart Jet

📉EURGBP, cherry picking the entry here which feels a bit pretentious since it’s also near Goldmans stop loss but I think we can get it, I mean, technically price is sitting right at support so a bit of a pullback and squeeze of the late shorts is possible, setting a pending order to short at 0.87800 with target 0.86000 and stop loss 0.88500, 0.5% risk📉

Smart Jet

Morning traders, I have removed the EURGBP pending order already which looks too far to get filled now, I will keep an eye on it for an entry probably nearer 0.87400 now, will see Other than that, not a lot going on, EURUSD is still in the chop where we want to sell resistance rather than support, while something that catches my attention this morning is AUDUSD, I think that's near the tipping point of this rally so we might add to AUDUSD shorts soon, obviously keeping in mind that we have a big CPI number scheduled for tomorrow so we don't want to head with too much USD exposure into that, just in case Also crypto, remember to turn and stay defensive on BTC, looks like it's about to flush lower at any moment, which is good, we want price a lot lower to start thinking about loading up again

Smart Jet

Morning traders, haven't pulled the trigger on GBPUSD shorts yet nor any other Dollar long, probably I'm being a bit too prudent but I feel the timing and market structure is not as good as it should for USD longs yet, arguably the market is also lacking catalysts to get a clear direction, GDP today is unlikely to be much of a market mover but PCE tomorrow without a doubt, I keep monitoring for an entry, also keeping in mind it's month end so we could see some random month end flows over the next two days, in other words, keeping it cautious, we have a fundamentally packed week next week with the FOMC and ECB rate decisions so no need to rush into trades right now Other than that, still standing ready to take profit on the BTC longs, if I see price above 30k I will be VERY tempted to do so, will send out a full email note with more details on why we are taking profit when we do so

Smart Jet

Morning traders, with a data dependant FED the data from the US becomes even more important as it will decide the next move at the next rate decision and shape the sentiment heading into it, the first important number for that is the NFP today which we monitor carefully With that TDS is expecting a number below consensus and Goldmans is expecting a number above consensus so mixed reading, but the plan for me is still in favor of USD longs so if we see a strong NFP later we might jump into some Dollar longs right before the weekly close

Smart Jet