BTC/USD Forecast: Continues to Threaten a Drop

#OPINIONLEADER#

The BTC/USD has drifted a little bit lower during the trading session on Friday, as we continue to see the US dollar strengthen against almost everything else. The 50-Day EMA currently sits just above current trading, and therefore it makes quite a bit of sense that we would continue to see downward pressure from a technical analysis standpoint.

The $20,000 level of course a large, round, psychologically significant trigger, and therefore it does make quite a bit of sense that we continue to have around this area. It looks like the area offers support down to the $18,000 level. If we were to break down below the $18,000 level, then it opens quite a bit of downward pressure, perhaps sending the Bitcoin market down to the $15,000 level, possibly even the $12,000 level after that. When you look at the $12,000 level, it’s an area that has been important previously, as it is where we launched from during the last bullish run.

Rallies Should be Seen as Signs of Exhaustion

• Once we get down there, I will be accumulating Bitcoin, but in the short term, it’s very difficult to imagine a scenario where I would get aggressive here.
• Ultimately, every time we rally there should be a sign of exhaustion that people would get involved with.
• As far as buying is concerned, we would need to see some type of different attitude coming out of the Federal Reserve, perhaps even the US dollar turnaround.
• However, from a technical standpoint, if the market were to break above the $25,000 level, that would be very bullish and send Bitcoin much higher.

The 200-Day EMA is sitting right around the $20,000 level and is sloping at this point. The 200-Day EMA is a significant indicator to determine the trend, and a lot of people will pay close attention to it. If we were to break above there, then it probably kicks off a fresh run higher. I highly doubt that happens, and I suspect we are more likely to see $15,000 before we see $25,000. Pay attention to the US dollar, risk appetite in other assets, and everything else. Bitcoin is far out on the risk spectrum; therefore, it needs a “risk on” type of attitude to start getting bullish again. I think more likely than not, we should have an opportunity to pick up a larger position at much lower levels.