Economist at UOB Group Enrico Tanuwidjaja reviews the latest trade balance results in Indonesia.

Key Takeaways

“Mining-related exports surged 121.5% m/m to drive Jan’s exports to reach USD22.3bn (16.4% y/y gain). Oil & gas (OG) exports also surged 65.0%, driven mainly by raw and processed oil exports as well as gas exports. Meanwhile, non-oil imports’ contraction of 2.8% y/y pushed for a more subdued total imports growth of just 1.3% in Jan as OG imports continued to grow robustly at 30.4%. Trade balance in Jan continued to remain high at USD3.9bn, virtually unchanged from Dec’s level and beating consensus of USD3.3bn.”

“Key non-oil exports destination are China, US, and Japan with the export values at USD5,3bn, USD1.9bn, and USD1.9bn respectively while key imports origins are from China (USD5.3bn), Japan (USD1.4bn), and Thailand (USD0.9bn).”

“Today’s trade figures mark a strong start for 2023 performance whereby trade surplus continued to remain at an elevated level. Against a record year in 2022 where annual trade surplus stood at historic high of USD54.5bn (monthly average of USD4.5bn), this year’s annual performance may relatively be lower as we expect easing global commodity prices to weigh down on the overall non-OG and in turn, total exports.”