“The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will hike its interest rate again by 25 basis points to 3.60% on Tuesday, followed by one more lift next quarter, before pausing until next year, taking the peak rate higher than previously thought,” as per the latest Reuters poll published early Friday in Asia.
Key findings
All but one of the 28 economists in the Feb. 27-March 2 Reuters poll said the RBA would raise its official cash rate by 25 basis points, reaching a more than decade-high of 3.60%, at its March 7 meeting. One saw a 15 basis-point move.
A strong minority of more than one-third of respondents, 10 of 28, predicted rates to peak even higher at 4.10% next quarter. One economist had a peak of 4.35% in the third quarter.
Several economists foresee trouble ahead for the Australian economy, partly because higher interest rates have already slowed activity in the housing market, where prices are expected to fall more than double the correction during the 2008 financial crisis.
Just over a quarter of economists, 8 of 28, forecast at least one rate cut by year-end.
Also read: AUD/USD Price Analysis: Attempts to deliver a bullish reversal
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