EUR/USD has maintained its bullish bias for the past three days, driven by renewed pressure on the US Dollar due to falling US Treasury (UST) bond yields. A shift in interest rate repricing has caused the UST yield to enter a corrective decline.
The three-day bullish rally for EUR/USD has led to a retest of the descending trendline that originates from February's high at the 1.1036 level.
The descending trendline intersects the 38.2% Fibonacci level at the 1.0720 mark, which also coincides with the 50-Day Moving Average (DMA). This convergence of factors creates a significant and challenging resistance.
A decisive break above this level could propel the price towards a series of resistances, starting with last week's high at 1.0753, followed by the 50% Fibonacci level. The final line of resistance would be the 61.8% Fibonacci level.
Any pullback is likely to be limited around the 23.6% Fibonacci level, which coincides with the 21-DMA. A convincing break below this point could send EUR/USD down to the multi-month low of 1.0525, which also serves as the last line of support.
As we approach an important Fed meeting, it is not uncommon for investors to be polarized regarding policy decisions. Consequently, the pair is likely to tread water ahead of the event. All crucial levels will remain on the watchlist, as volatility is expected during the FOMC policy decision.
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