What to look for around USD

The index remains under pressure and keeps the trade well in the sub-104.00 region amidst a broad-based range bound theme in the rest of the markets.

The risk aversion derived from banking jitters appears diminished and supports the selling bias in the dollar amidst firmer conviction among investors of a 25 bps rate hike by the Federal Reserve at the next meeting on March 22.

So far, reinvigorated bets of a Fed’s pivot in the short-term horizon could keep the price action around the dollar somewhat depressed. However, the still elevated inflation and the resilience of the US economy should continue to play against that view.

Key events in the US this week: Existing Home Sales (Tuesday) – MBA Mortgage Applications, FOMC Interest Rate Decision, Powell press conference (Wednesday) – Initial Jobless Claims, Chicago Fed National Activity Index, New Home Sales (Thursday) – Durable Goods Orders, Advanced PMIs (Friday).

Eminent issues on the back boiler: Rising conviction of a soft landing of the US economy. Persistent narrative for a Fed’s tighter-for-longer stance. Terminal rates near 5.5%? Fed’s pivot. Geopolitical effervescence vs. Russia and China. US-China trade conflict.