How could it affect AUD/USD?

AUD/USD extends the week-start rebound to refresh intraday high around 0.6660 heading into the key Aussie event. It’s worth noting that the firmer sentiment and broad US Dollar weakness underpins the risk-barometer pair’s latest run-up while the pre-data anxiety seems to test the bulls of late.

That said, the recent chatters surrounding the Aussie recession, amid fears of comparatively higher rates in Australia than the US, may also seek validation from today’s Aussie Retail Sales data. Hence, recovery in the key statistics may allow the AUD/USD buyers to extend the latest rebound to cross the immediate technical hurdle while a negative surprise, which is more likely, could recall the Aussie pair buyer by highlighting the hawkish Fed concerns.

It should be noted, however, that Wednesday’s Aussie Consumer Price Index (CPI) also increases the importance of today’s Retail Sales data as any disappointment from the figures could prod the firmer inflation-led run-up of the AUD/USD pair.

Technically, AUD/USD rebound remains elusive unless providing a sustained daily close beyond 0.6700 support-turned-resistance comprising lower line of the short-term rising wedge.