AUD/NZD JUGGLES ABOVE 1.0770 AHEAD OF RBA-RBNZ'S INTEREST RATE POLICY

The AUD/NZD pair is oscillating in a narrow range above 1.0770 in the early Tokyo session. The cross has turned sideways as investors are awaiting the announcement of the interest rate decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ).

Inflationary pressures in Australia and the New Zealand region have been extremely skewed from the desired rate, therefore, more rate hikes from their central banks are in pipeline.

Australia’s monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) indicator has conveyed that inflation has softened quickly in the past two months to 6.8% from the peak of 8.4% registered in December. However, more rate hikes from RBA Governor Philip Lowe cannot be ruled out as the central bank has a lot to go further to achieve price stability.

Analysts at Rabobank cited “It remains our view that the RBA will hike by a further 25 bps in April to take the cash rate to 3.85% ahead of a possible pause in May. The softer headline inflation print for February will not be sufficient for the RBA to abandon their tightening bias as labor market indicators, forward indicators, and the still comparatively high level of inflation all point to the need for further tightening.”

Also, a similar kind of interest rate hike is expected from RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr despite evidence of contraction in the New Zealand economy.

Over 90% of economists said the RBNZ would hike the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points (bps) to 5.00% despite the economy being expected to have shrunk 0.3% this quarter, following a 0.6% contraction in the final three months of 2022, Reuters reported after a March 27-30 poll.