WHEN IS THE RBNZ INTEREST RATE DECISION AND HOW IT COULD AFFECT NZD/USD?

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Early Wednesday at 02:00 GMT market sees the key monetary policy decision by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) amid hopes of another hawkish play by the New Zealand central bank, despite doves flexing muscles of late.

RBNZ is up for fueling the market moves with its 11th consecutive rate hike, expectedly worth 0.25%, during early Wednesday. The Interest Rate Decision will be accompanied by the RBNZ Rate Statement which can provide further details on the central bank’s next moves, making it crucial for the NZD/USD pair traders to watch.

Ahead of the event, Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) said,

We expect the RBNZ will raise the OCR 25 bps to 5.00%. If that’s not to be, we see a 50 bps hike as likelier than a pause. On balance, local data since the February MPS has not convincingly tilted things in either direction. But global financial sector wobbles suggest a degree of caution is appropriate, which the RBNZ can now afford given they are fairly confident the OCR is now in contractionary territory. We continue to forecast the OCR to peak at 5.25% with one more hike to come in May.

On the same line, analysts at the National Australia Bank (NAB) said,

We think the RBNZ/MPC will largely hold to its February MPS line, by delivering a 25 bps hike in the OCR and maintaining a hawkish tilt in its commentary and minutes.

Furthermore, FXStreet’s Dhwani Mehta said,

With a 25 bps rate hike almost a done deal, traders will closely scrutinize any tweaks in the language of the statement for fresh hints on the RBNZ’s rate hike path.


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