US DOLLAR INDEX: DXY LICKS ITS WOUNDS NEAR 102.00 ON EASTER MONDAY, US INFLATION, FOMC MINUTES EYED (II)

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On the other hand, Friday’s upbeat prints of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) bolster hawkish Fed bets. However, the market participants do expect a rate cut in late 2023 and hence pour cold water on the face of the US Dollar bulls. With this, the CME’s FedWatch Tool suggests 69% odds of the 0.25% rate hike in May, versus 55% before the US jobs report.

It’s worth observing that Russia’s strong usage of the Chinese Yuan, versus the US Dollar, joins a pact between Brazil and China to ignore the greenback as an intermediate currency during their trades to challenge the USD’s elite status.

On Friday, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revealed that Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) rose by 236K in March, the lowest since January 2021 (considering the revisions), versus 240K expected and 326K prior. Further, the Unemployment Rate eased to 3.5% versus 3.6% prior while the Labor Force Participation Rate improved to 62.6% from 62.5%. Finally, annual wage inflation, per the Average Hourly Earnings, dropped to 4.2% from 4.6%, versus market forecasts of 4.3%. 

Looking ahead, an off in multiple markets, due to Easter Monday, may restrict DXY moves ahead of the key US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data and the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes.


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