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Economists at OCBC Bank discuss USD/JPY outlook ahead of Friday’s Bank of Japan meeting.
Support at 138.40/50 levels (recent low, 21 DMA).
Resistance at 140.20 and 142.50 (61.8% fibo retracement of 2022 high to 2023 low).
Recall at the last BoJ MPC (28 Apr), a policy review was unveiled as expected but the projected timeframe for the review (up to 1-1.5years) was much longer than expected. BoJ Governor Ueda did clarify that policy change is still possible during policy review. We opined BoJ is buying time, and this suggests that JPY bulls may have to be more patient.
We doubt BoJ will use the full 18 months review duration, but it also appears that the Friday MPC (16th Jun) may be too soon to expect any policy shift. Nevertheless, we are still in favour of BoJ policy normalisation amid broadening inflationary pressures and wage growth seen in Japan.
風險提示:本文所述僅代表作者個人觀點,不代表 Followme 的官方立場。Followme 不對內容的準確性、完整性或可靠性作出任何保證,對於基於該內容所採取的任何行為,不承擔任何責任,除非另有書面明確說明。

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