In May, the MXN appreciated marginally from 18.005 to 17.718 against the USD. Economists at MUFG Bank discuss USD/MXN outlook.
Peso unlikely to weaken sharply
We expect the Fed to leave their policy rate unchanged and a US default to be avoided dampening upside risks for USD/MXN.
Looking ahead, we keep our view for a moderate MXN weakening in the coming quarters influenced by a set of factors. The concerns with global economic slowdown, and especially a slowdown in the US that could curtail USD inflows into Mexico.
On the local side, fear of additional government interference in private industry may be souring sentiment. But we don´t expect a sharp MXN weakening.
USD/MXN: Q2 2023 17.800 Q3 2023 18.000 Q4 2023 18.200 Q1 2024 18.200
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