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Economists at ANZ Bank analyze New Zealand’s current account data and its implication for the Kiwi.
The annual current account deficit came in at 8.5% of GDP in Q12023, narrowing from a revised 9.0% in Q4 2022 (was 8.9%).
New Zealand’s net international liability position narrowed $5.5bn from Q4 to a still-whopping $189bn. As a share of GDP it narrowed 2.3ppt to 48.8%.
All up, New Zealand remains severely out of balance, but with tourism recovering, we now appear past the worst of it. That said, it could be a long road to something more sustainable.
All else equal, New Zealand’s severe external imbalance continues to hint towards a need for a weak NZD and higher interest rates.
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