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Officials are likely to step up verbal intervention closer to 145 in USD/JPY, in the opinion of economists at Société Générale.
We now forecast a widening in the range for the 10y JGB yield from /- 0.50% to 1.00% at the next meeting in July. This may however depend on the FOMC meeting in the US. The outlook for USD/JPY is clouded by the timing of the BoJ but also by the Fed.
A further widening of UST/JGB differentials in the run-up to the July meeting and acceleration of USD/JPY beyond 145 could see the return of FX intervention.
Speculation of a general election this autumn also clouds the outlook for the currency and policy adjustment by the BoJ.
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