AUD/USD IS NOW EXPECTED TO FACE SOME CONSOLIDATION – UOB

In the opinion of UOB Group’s Markets Strategist Quek Ser Leang and Senior Economist Alvin Liew, AUD/USD has now likely moved into a consolidative phase.

Key Quotes

24-hour view: Our view for AUD to consolidate yesterday was incorrect as it plummeted to a low of 0.6754 and then rebounded. Despite the rebound, the weakness in AUD has yet to stabilize. Today, barring a break above 0.6845 (minor resistance is at 0.6820), AUD could retest the 0.6755 level before stabilization is likely. The next support at 0.6700 is unlikely to come under threat. 

Next 1-3 weeks: In our latest narrative from last Friday (16 Jun, spot at 0.6875), we highlighted that “AUD strength is still in place.” We added, “after rising sharply and swiftly in the past one week or so, AUD is approaching a solid resistance zone between 0.6915 and 0.6940” and “this resistance zone might not be easy to break.” Yesterday (20 Jun), AUD fell below our ‘strong support’ level of 0.6790. The breach of the ‘strong support’ indicates that AUD strength has ended. It is too early to expect a sustained pullback. For the time being, we expect AUD to trade in a range between 0.6700 and 0.6880.