POWELL’S HAWKISH RHETORIC IS A WARNING SIGNAL AGAINST JUMPING TOO EARLY ON A BEARISH DOLLAR TREND – ING

Dollar has rebounded despite hawkish surprises elsewhere. Economists at ING discuss USD outlook.

Powell talking up the Dot Plot

What has likely offered backing to the Dollar has been the hawkish message pushed by Fed Chair Jerome Powell in the two days of Congress testimonies. While the overall rhetoric has been nearly identical to last week’s press conference, Powell seemed to add more weight on the near-term prospects of further rate hikes compared to last week – implicitly encouraging markets to close the gap with the Dot Plot projections.

For now, that gap is still present. It is clear that investors are awaiting the cue from data to align with the Dot Plot, but Powell’s hawkish rhetoric is a warning signal against jumping too early on a bearish Dollar trend given the risks of a further inversion of the US yield curve.