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Strategists at Société Générale feel there is a real likelihood of nominal rates decoupling from real rates to push Gold prices higher.
We see 10-year US rate forecasts moderating significantly by the end of 2024 and with the low-hanging fruit in the fight against inflation already picked, we anticipate that the gold market will have to adjust its forward CPI projections upwards.
We see Gold appreciating to $2,200 by the end of this year in lumpy moves as forward inflation expectations adjust with the macro newsflow.
As an additional bullish driver, in our anticipated scenario of moderating US rates, we see the USD weakening – which, together with other USD-denominated assets, should buoy Gold.
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