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ECB's President Lagarde will speak at Sintra forum on Tuesday. Economists at Société Générale analyze EUR/USD outlook.
We think perseverance today means undoubtedly raising rates by 25 bps in July, possibly in September, and not wavering in ‘our commitment to ensure that inflation returns to 2% over the medium term.’
The effectiveness of tighter policy is debatable when real rates are negative and unit labour costs are growing at twice the rate of the inflation target. Since her last visit to the Garden of the Feitoria da Condessa – and following a stretch of 400 bps of hikes – core inflation has mushroomed from 3.7% to 5.3%. If our economists are right, it will accelerate to 5.6% when the June data is published on Friday.
EUR/USD fell 0.7% during her speech last year. The 10y EUR IRS rose 8 bps. A repeat today would pin EUR/USD back below 1.09 and help 10y swaps to fend off the receiving pressure around the 200-DMA at 2.95%
風險提示：本文所述僅代表作者個人觀點，不代表 Followme 的官方立場。Followme 不對內容的準確性、完整性或可靠性作出任何保證，對於基於該內容所採取的任何行為，不承擔任何責任，除非另有書面明確說明。
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