Scenario
Timeframe	Weekly
Recommendation	SELL STOP
Entry Point	0.6590
Take Profit	0.6469
Stop Loss	0.6670
Key Levels	0.6469, 0.6591, 0.6715, 0.6835, 0.6897

Alternative scenario
Recommendation	BUY STOP
Entry Point	0.6715
Take Profit	0.6835, 0.6897
Stop Loss	0.6650
Key Levels	0.6469, 0.6591, 0.6715, 0.6835, 0.6897

Current trend

The AUD/USD pair continues to decline for the second week in a row and is currently trading around 0.6620.

The Australian currency is still under pressure amid the publication of May inflation data in Australia. Recall that the consumer price index decreased from 6.8% to 5.6% year-on-year, much more seriously than experts expected (6.1%). The slowdown will allow officials of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to suspend the "hawkish" cycle of monetary policy and abandon further interest rate increases. In addition, today's publication of Chinese data on the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector contributes to the current decline in the quotations of the AUD/USD pair: in June, the indicator remained at 49.0 points, while a decrease in production activity may lead to a decrease in purchases by Chinese companies of raw materials and energy from Australia and put additional pressure on the economy.

Unlike the RBA, the US Fed is likely to resume raising interest rates in the near future. Speaking at the Forum of the European Central Bank, the head of the department Jerome Powell said that further tightening of monetary policy may be appropriate, and officials are considering such a possibility. Thus, the US currency will continue to receive support from monetary factors. In addition, its strengthening is currently being promoted by yesterday's publication of data on the gross domestic product (GDP) of the USA: in Q1 2023, the economy grew by 2.0%, significantly exceeding the projected 1.4%. These data reduce the risks of a recession and strengthen the investment attractiveness of the US dollar.   

Support and resistance

Technically, the price is close to the level of 0.6591 (Murray level [4/8]), the breakdown of which will give the prospect of continuing the decline to the level of 0.6469 (Murray level [2/8]). The key for the "bulls" is the 0.6715 mark (Murray level [6/8], the middle line of the Bollinger Bands), consolidation above it may lead to an increase in quotes to the 0.6835 (the Murray level [8/8]) and 0.6897 (the Murray level [ 1/8]).

Technical indicators do not give a single signal: the Bollinger Bands reverse horizontally after growth, the MACD histogram is preparing to move into the negative zone, the Stochastic is horizontal in the oversold zone. 

Resistance levels: 0.6715, 0.6835, 0.6897.

Support levels: 0.6591, 0.6469.

Trading tips

Short positions should be opened below 0.6591 with a target at 0.6469 and stop-loss in the area of 0.6670. Implementation period: 5-7 days.

Long positions can be opened above 0.6715 with targets at 0.6835, 0.6897 and stop-loss at around 0.6650.