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EUR/USD is now close to where it was at the start of the COVID pandemic. Economists at Société Générale analyze the pair’s outlook.
What seems clear is that at this point, major currencies (and EUR/USD in particular) are very sensitive to changes in short-term rate differentials, probably because there is so much uncertainty around the bigger picture.
We expect the gap between ECB and Fed rates to continue narrowing in the second half of this year and into 2024, and the 1-year rate differential seems set to narrow further than it did in 2020 – and it dragged EUR/USD above 1.20 that time.
Even if we see rate convergence, it seems unlikely a new major Euro uptrend will start without stronger growth.
風險提示：本文所述僅代表作者個人觀點，不代表 Followme 的官方立場。Followme 不對內容的準確性、完整性或可靠性作出任何保證，對於基於該內容所採取的任何行為，不承擔任何責任，除非另有書面明確說明。
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