The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept rates unchanged. Economists at ING analyze AUD/USD outlook.

A hawkish ‘skip’ by the RBA

The statement clearly leaves the door open for more tightening if required and reiterates a strictly data-dependent approach to further monetary policy decisions.

With a September rate hike almost fully priced in, we expect the pair to be almost entirely driven by external factors (Fed, US data, Chinese sentiment): for now, the upside looks somewhat limited, although the room for a rally later in the year should emerge.