Economists at Société Générale analyze CNY and KRW outlooks.
The CNY and the KRW may take different paths
State-owned banks’ direct USD sales to the market would likely be the most effective way to mitigate the current CNY depreciation, but it cannot be mobilised on a sustained basis. Therefore, we believe it is appropriate to maintain the buy on dips bias in USD/CNY.
Among the various factors, the semiconductor industry cycle could have a much longer impact on USD/KRW because a rebound in the semiconductor industry has the potential to improve the trade balance, portfolio flows and risk sentiment all at once.
We believe USD/KRW at above 1,315 (50-DMA) provides a level worth trying a shorting of USD/KRW and CNH/KRW.
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