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NOK trended stronger after Norway’s inflation on Monday. Economists at Commerzbank analyze Krone's outlook.
In June, NB proved to be courageous and sent out another restrictive signal ahead of the summer break. It hiked the key rate by 50 bps to 3.75% and signalled a further rate step for August. It expects the terminal rate to be 4.25%. If inflation remains stubbornly high it is quite possible though that Norges Bank takes even further action and that the terminal rate will be even higher in the end.
A lot can happen until then though. But high price data in conjunction with economic data that points towards a reasonably robust economy are likely to principally support NOK in view of Norges Bank’s determined approach as this increases the likelihood of a higher terminal rate.
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