Scenario
Timeframe	Weekly
Recommendation	BUY STOP
Entry Point	1.0655
Take Profit	1.0742, 1.0864
Stop Loss	1.0575
Key Levels	1.0260, 1.0376, 1.0498, 1.0650, 1.0742, 1.0864

Alternative scenario
Recommendation	SELL STOP
Entry Point	1.0495
Take Profit	1.0376, 1.0260
Stop Loss	1.0590
Key Levels	1.0260, 1.0376, 1.0498, 1.0650, 1.0742, 1.0864

Current trend

This week, the EUR/USD pair continued to grow, correcting to the medium-term downward trend, and is now trading around 1.0620 (Murrey level [3/8]).

The dollar is under pressure amid uncertainty about the future actions of the US Federal Reserve: on the one hand, inflation is showing clear signs of decline, as evidenced by the reduction in the August private consumption expenditure index from 4.3% to 3.9% but the labor market remains strong, and employment growth in September amounted to 336.0K, which may accelerate the growth of consumer prices. In these conditions, there is no unanimity of opinion among the representatives of the regulator: thus, the President of the Federal Reserve Bank (FRB) of Minneapolis Neel Kashkari and the head of the Atlanta Fed Raphael Bostic call for stopping the cycle of tightening monetary policy, while, for example, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman believes that inflation has not decreased sufficiently, and a new increase in interest rates is quite possible.

Today, September data on the consumer price index will be published, which can significantly affect the mood of the officials: if the indicator meets forecasts and decreases again, the position of the “doves” will strengthen, and the dollar may come under new pressure. In general, investors are counting on this scenario and abandoning the US currency in favor of alternative assets, including the euro.

Support and resistance

The trading instrument is trying to break the resistance zone 1.0620–1.0650 (Murrey level [3/8], Fibonacci retracement 38.2%) to continue growing to the area of 1.0742 (Murrey level [4/8]) and 1.0864 (Murrey level [5/8]). The key “bearish” level is 1.0498 (Murrey level [2/8]), which breakdown will allow the price to fall to the area of 1.0376 (Murrey level [1/8]) and 1.0260 (Murrey level [0/8], Fibonacci correction 23, 6%).

Technical indicators do not give a single signal: Bollinger bands reverse horizontally after a decline, the MACD histogram is increasing in the negative zone, and Stochastic has entered the overbought zone but is directed upwards.

Resistance levels: 1.0650, 1.0742, 1.0864.

Support levels: 1.0498, 1.0376, 1.0260.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened above 1.0650 with the targets at 1.0742, 1.0864 and stop loss around 1.0575. Implementation time: 5–7 days.

Short positions may be opened below 1.0498 with the targets at 1.0376, 1.0260 and stop loss around 1.0590.