Australian inflation figures for the fourth quarter will be released on Wednesday, January 31 at 00:30 GMT. Economists at Commerzbank analyze Aussie’s outlook ahead of the data.

RBA is unlikely to give the all-clear just yet

If the economists surveyed by Bloomberg are correct, the quarterly increase should be lower than in the third quarter but about the same as in the second quarter, i.e. the level we saw six months ago before inflation picked up again. With a quarterly change of 0.8%, the RBA is unlikely to give the all-clear just yet.

Unless inflation falls much more than expected, the RBA is unlikely to give any indication of an imminent rate cut at next week's meeting. If it does, it is likely to be one of the more dovish central banks and the Aussie is likely to suffer as a result.