Gold dipped 1.1% after the US inflation print came in higher than expected. Economists at TD Securities analyze the yellow metal’s outlook.

Gold may drift modestly lower toward the $2,025-$2,100 range

The February CPI came in hotter than expected, with core up 0.4% MoM to 3.8% YoY, and headline up 0.4% MoM to 3.2% YoY. The implication is that the Fed may not be ready to cut rates just yet. 

The outsized rally which took Gold up from the $2,020s to nearly $2,200 may well give back some gains, as some of the recent long extensions are liquidated or buying momentum slows. It would not be a surprise to see Gold drift modestly lower toward the $2,025-$2,100 range.

The US central bank is gearing up to cut and despite disappointing CPI print, US monetary policy authorities are likely to judge that price pressures are coming off.

As long as economic data continues to soften, Gold is well positioned to hit our $2,250 Q2-24 target.