Austan Goolsbee, President of the Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Chicago cautioned that he still wants to see further progress on inflation, but sees the possibility of worsening conditions in manufacturing and argiculture. Chicago Fed head Goolsbee was speaking at the Iowa Farm Bureau Economic Summit Ankeny, Iowa.

Key highlights

Manufacturing and agriculture feel closer to the edge of a downturn.

If we keep making progress on inflation, and the rates can come down, we may avoid recession.

As European countries cut rates, that could push up the dollar.

A stronger dollar would affect the export-import balance, and affect US employment and inflation.

If inflation ahead behaves as it did in the first quarter, we would have a hard time cutting rates.

The unemployment rate, quit rate, and the ratio of jobs to opening, looks like the labor market is cooling.

I don't take too much signal from the monthly payrolls data by itself.