- Fed perceives only one rate cut in 2024 compared to the market's prediction of two. This discrepancy will be influenced heavily by emerging financial data.
- Investors are awaiting critical reports, namely June's Consumer Price Index (CPI) and PCE, which will be key for timing of interest rate cuts. The odds of a cut at the July meeting remain low at 10%.
- An upcoming cut will also depend on July’s CPI and PCE, ahead of the Fed's meeting on September 17-18. The odds for a rate cut at this meeting are currently near 75%.
- US Treasury yields are following an uptrend, with the 2, 5 and 10-year yields reported at 4.47%, 4.30%, and 4.28%, respectively, with large gains.
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