Japanese underlying inflation continues to cool

Experts say the only way to reverse the long-term depreciation in the Yen is to increase interest rates, however, in order to do that, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) needs to to see inflation rising. Japanese Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for May released overnight will likely make them less inclined to begin raising interest rates, according to economists at Capital Economics.  

Despite the headline rate of inflation rising to 2.8% from 2.5% previously, these gains were put mainly down to a 10% rise in utility bills after the government withdrew its subsidies for energy companies. 

National CPI ex Food and Energy, however, cooled to 2.1% from 2.4% previously and showed underlying inflation continuing “to slow rapidly” according to Marcel Thieliant, Head of Asia-Pacific at Capital Economics. 

“The upshot is that inflation excluding fresh food could already fall below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target in June and we still expect it to slow more sharply over coming months than the Bank has been anticipating. While that probably won’t forestall a rate hike at the Bank’s July meeting, it should convince the Bank to leave rates unchanged thereafter,” he concludes