Current trend

The USD/CAD pair is correcting against the stabilization of the US currency, trading at 1.3772.

The Canadian dollar expects support from macroeconomic data. The June exports increased by 5.5% to 66.65B dollars from 63.19B dollars, and imports by 1.9% to 66.01B dollars from 64.80B dollars. As a result, the trade balance went from a deficit of 1.6B dollars in May to a surplus of 638.0M dollars after three months of decline due to the growth of crude oil exports by 5.5% to the February high.

The American currency is trading at 103.00 in USDX. No key macroeconomic publications are expected soon, and the dollar may stay within the current trend to recover some of the losses of the past Friday and Monday. The US exports and imports showed growth but not enough to offset the trade balance deficit of –73.10B dollars. Earlier, investors paid attention to the July ISM non-manufacturing PMI, which adjusted from 49.6 points to 54.5 points. Business representatives noted that the volume of orders and the number of new jobs in the sector are growing, practically leveling out the risks of a recession in the economy that arose after a serious cooling of the labor market in July.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, the trading instrument is approaching the support line of the ascending channel with dynamic boundaries of 1.3900–1.3670. Technical indicators weaken the buy signal: the EMA oscillation range on the Alligator indicator narrows in the direction of decline, and the AO histogram has downward bars above the transition level.

Resistance levels: 1.3800, 1.3900.

Support levels: 1.3750, 1.3620.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened after the price declines and consolidates below 1.3750, with the target at 1.3620. Stop loss is 1.3800. Implementation period: 7 days or more.

Long positions may be opened after the price grows and consolidates above 1.3800, with the target at 1.3900. Stop loss is 1.3750.