Morning traders, ban...來自Smart Jet

18 Apr 2022, 14:50 · 閱讀量 168

Morning traders, bank holiday in Europe, so the week starts quiet and lightens up on Thursday with Powell's speech, ideally we want to be long USDs again into that speech and then continue with Dollar longs as we head into May with the FOMC, that's the majority of the plan going forward, long USDs into a 50bps hike and QT announcement in May 4 Will be back with the latest from Goldmans in a minute

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‼️GBPUSD update, moving stop loss further in profit at 1.24850‼️

Smart Jet

Morning traders, I have removed the EURGBP pending order already which looks too far to get filled now, I will keep an eye on it for an entry probably nearer 0.87400 now, will see Other than that, not a lot going on, EURUSD is still in the chop where we want to sell resistance rather than support, while something that catches my attention this morning is AUDUSD, I think that's near the tipping point of this rally so we might add to AUDUSD shorts soon, obviously keeping in mind that we have a big CPI number scheduled for tomorrow so we don't want to head with too much USD exposure into that, just in case Also crypto, remember to turn and stay defensive on BTC, looks like it's about to flush lower at any moment, which is good, we want price a lot lower to start thinking about loading up again

Smart Jet

Powell still speaking but so far not much forward guidance is being given, simply the FED is open to hiking further but also open to a pause depending on how the data develops until the next rate decision, so without much said from Powell the Dollar is rightfully basically flat after a bit of volatility on both sides, not a lot to do with it, will see where markets are at tomorrow at the London open but for now, no short term bias and no short term fundamental direction from this flat FOMC

Smart Jet

Morning traders, the plan with the FOMC today is simple, we wait for the event, we listen to Powell carefully, and if he keeps the door open for another 25bps hike in June we jump into some Dollar longs at least until the NFP on Friday, if he doesn't, maybe we can get in some USDJPY shorts or most likely we will just wait for the next important fundamental development that will likely be the NFP on Friday Anyway, I think that Powell will keep the option for another 25bps hike so I would be leaning into USD longs today BUT Goldmans and others are all calling for the FED to signal a pause in hikes today, so I'm against the consensus in this view but that's also what makes this opportunity attractive, I mean, if Powell signals a pause the Dollar doesn't flinch much because that's expected already, if Powell signals another rate hike the Dollar strengthens quite a bit because that scenario is NOT priced

Smart Jet

Latest from Goldmans, they are going short EURGBP, mostly as a GBP bullish trade but with a hint of EUR bearishness as well I like the trade, inflation has been stubbornly high in the UK so there is also room for a hawkish BoE rate decision this week, I will be doing some further reading about the whole context since I haven't been diving deep much into the UK data lately except the inflation numbers but we will likely get into the trade today

Smart Jet