FPG ：Gold has been trading at relatively high levels, and market participants are eagerly awaiting further news and developments that could impact its price 1. [The British economy has almost stopped growing] The latest official data shows that the British economy contracted by 0.1% in May, following a slight increase of 0.2% in April. As a result, there has been no growth in the British economy over the past three months. When considering a longer timeframe, the British economy has experienced limited growth since before the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 until now. Comments: The performance of the British economy, particularly since Brexit, seems to be reflecting the consequences of certain decisions made during that period. This situation highlights the potential pitfalls of emotional decision-making on a collective level, which may not always align with rational choices. 2. [The United States PPI unexpectedly fell beyond expectations] The Producer Price Index (PPI) in the United States unexpectedly cooled sharply in June, with the year-on-year growth rate dropping from 1.1% in May to 0.1%, reaching the lowest level in the past three years. Comments: Although the PPI has limited impact on the overall consumer price index, it further suggests that the Federal Reserve may be cautious in its approach to raising interest rates. A 50 basis points increase in interest rates seems highly unlikely in this context. 3. [U.S. fiscal deficit soared] According to a report from the U.S. National Public Radio, data released by the U.S. Department of the Treasury reveals that the U.S. government's fiscal deficit reached approximately $1.4 trillion in the first nine months of the fiscal year (October 2022 to June 2023), nearly tripling the deficit for the same period last year, which stood at $515.1 billion. In June alone, the fiscal deficit expanded by $227.7 billion, compared to $88.8 billion in the same period last year. Comments: The substantial increase in the U.S. fiscal deficit raises concerns, especially considering the potential implications of excessive money printing by the Federal Reserve in recent years. It is worth monitoring how this situation evolves and its impact on various aspects of the economy. 4. [Funds continue to borrow ETF to return to the market] Several ETFs, including Huatai Berry Shanghai and Shenzhen 300ETF, Huaxia China Securities 1000ETF, Yifangda Shanghai and Shenzhen 300ETF, Southern China Securities 1000ETF, and Huaxia Kechuang 50ETF, have seen significant net inflows of funds, with Huatai Bairui Shanghai Shenzhen 300 ETF leading the way with a single-week "gold absorption" of over 2.6 billion yuan. Comments: Despite the average performance of equity funds, ETFs have shown growth against the trend. This may be attributed to the increasing preference for quantitative products utilizing ETF tools. 5. [The EU Finance Minister's Conference focused on financial support for Ukraine] The European Union Finance Minister's Meeting in Brussels recently discussed financial support for Ukraine. During the press conference following the meeting, Vice President of the European Commission, Dąbrowskis, mentioned the proposal for the establishment of a Ukrainian fund and the provision of 500 billion euros in grants and loans. Comments: Foreign media analysis suggests that the EU's support to Ukraine may increasingly focus on financial aid rather than military assistance in the future, as the availability of weapons from the EU may be limited. 6. [India has used RMB to buy Russian oil] A senior Indian official confirmed that Indian refiners have utilized the Chinese currency, RMB, to settle payments for some imported Russian crude oil. However, the US dollar remains the primary currency for India's settlement of Russian oil purchases. The official added that the use of RMB for settlement would still be limited due to India's low exports (trade volume) to China, resulting in fewer RMB reserves. Comments: India's interest in settling accounts using RMB primarily aims to address issues within the rupee trade settlement mechanism. FPG special analyst King’s opinion: The current trend suggests that gold prices will continue to rise, as the momentum swing index of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has not yet reached overbought levels. In the event of an economic recession, market volatility will increase, driving investors towards safe-haven assets such as gold. However, if austerity policies persist longer than expected, gold may face challenges. A soft landing of the economy would be favorable for risky assets, potentially strengthening the dollar and reducing the attractiveness of gold. FPG special analyst Dawson Daosheng‘s opinion: Japanese investors have been buying overseas bonds at a record pace, putting pressure on the yen exchange rate. Data shows that from January to May this year, Japanese investors purchased a record 11 trillion yen worth of medium- and long-term U.S. bonds. This can be attributed to the anticipated end of the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hikes and expectations surrounding the Bank of Japan's next moves. Dave, a special analyst at FPG: With a slowdown in exports, U.S. crude oil inventories have risen in recent weeks. The United States is also releasing strategic petroleum reserves, increasing net crude oil imports and refinery utilization rates, leading to increased distillate inventories while gasoline stocks remain stable. These factors add uncertainty to whether crude oil prices can sustain their rise amidst the OPEC+ production cuts. FPG special analyst Yue Lin‘s point of view: The Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 indexes have outperformed the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Index this year, driven by trends in the artificial intelligence (AI) industry. As of July 14, the Nasdaq 100 index has increased by 42.28% year-to-date, demonstrating a strong performance and a generally upward trajectory. The above analysis is only for the views of market researchers and is for reference only and is not Regarded as a specific investment suggestion. #Forex #trading #tradingforex