The European Central Bank trimmed interest rates by 25 basis points, but its decision was seen as hawkish as it cooled expectations for further cuts. The ECB updated its economic projections, revising GDP growth slightly higher for 2024 and inflation forecasts higher for 2024 and 2025.
In the US, employment data showed job openings declined, private sector job creation slowed, and initial jobless claims rose. However, the May Nonfarm Payrolls report beat expectations, with 272K new jobs added. This strong labor market data, along with persistent inflation, is likely to keep the Federal Reserve from cutting rates at its upcoming meeting. Key upcoming data includes US CPI and the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.
The EUR/USD pair faces immediate resistance at 1.0900, the midpoint of the ascending regression channel. If it rises above this level and uses it as support, it could target 1.0950 and 1.0980 next. On the downside, the 1.0860-1.0850 area, including the 50-period and 100-period SMAs and the lower channel limit, is a crucial support before the 1.0800 area, which includes the 200-period SMA and a static level.
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