GBP/USD – Once Again, Decade-High Inflation Pushes For A Rate Hike

#OPINIONLEADER##GBP/USD#

 NOV 18, 2021

• Consumer prices hit 10-year high in the UK
• Inverse Head and Shoulder pattern in GBP/USD (H4)
• Buying opportunity beyond 1.35 handle

Chart 1: GBP/USD H4 chart

Following the release of the strong UK jobs report, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported a 10-year high annual headline inflation level of 4.2% yesterday, surpassing the expectation of 3.9%. As a result, the market is now expecting the Bank of England to carry out its first hike in interest rate during the December’s meeting.

At the moment, GBP/USD has broken above the neckline of the completed Inverse Head and Shoulder pattern in response to the positive data releases from the ONS, indicating a buy signal. However, the rally in GBP/USD seems to have stagnated just before the 1.35 handle. And so as a security measure, we should look for a longer term buy on GBP/USD only if it breaches the 1.35 handle.

Trade Setup for GBP/USD (H4)

Buy Stop at 1.3530

Upcoming news that may impact price movement of GBP/USD

18 November – FOMC Member Williams speaking at 2230 (GMT+8)

19 November – FOMC Member Evans speaking at 0300 (GMT+8)

19 November – FOMC Member Daly speaking at 0430 (GMT+8)

19 November – UK Retail Sales m/m data release at 1500 (GMT+8)

19 November – Bank of England committee member Pill speaking at 2000 (GMT+8)

19 November – FOMC Member Waller speaking at 1145 (GMT+8)

20 November – FOMC Member Clarida speaking at 0115 (GMT+8)

23 November – UK Flash PMI data release at 1530 (GMT+8)

23 November – US Flash PMI data release at 2245 (GMT+8)

24 November – US Preliminary GDP q/q data release at 2130 (GMT+8)

23 November – US PCE Price Index m/m data release at 2300 (GMT+8)

25 November – U.S. FOMC monetary policy meeting minutes release at 1500 (GMT+8)