GBP/JPY recovered after dipping to 152.88 last week. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Outlook is unchanged that fall from 157.74 should be the third leg of the corrective pattern from 158.19. Deeper decline is expected as long as 155.38 minor resistance holds. Below 152.88 will target 148.94 support next. On the upside, above 155.38 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside for 157.74/158.19 resistance zone instead.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 158.19 are currently seen as developing into a consolidation pattern to up trend from 123.94 (2020 low). Downside should be contained by 123.94 to 158.19 at 145.10 to bring rebound. Firm break of 158.19 will resume the up trend to long term fibonacci level at 167.93. However, sustained break of 145.10 will raise the chance of trend reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 137.02.
In the longer term picture, as long as 55 month EMA (now at 147.03) holds, we’d still favor more rally to 61.8% retracement of 195.86 to 122.75 at 167.93. But sustained trading below 55 month EMA will at least neutralize medium term bullishness and re-open the chance of revisiting 122.75 low (2016 low).
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