EURGBP finds feet at 61.8% Fibo but downside risks remain

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EURGBP’s latest decline traced the lower Bollinger band before unearthing some positive traction from the 0.8300 handle, which is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the up leg from the more than 5½-year low of 0.8202 until the 0.8457 high. The longer-term 100- and 200-period simple moving averages (SMAs) continue to endorse the now one-month neutral trend, while the falling 50-period SMA, is reflecting the recent dominance in bearish forces.

Meanwhile, the short-term oscillators are indicating that bullish forces are strengthening. The MACD, far beneath the zero mark, is flattening below its red trigger line, implying waning in negative impetus. The positively charged stochastic oscillator and the improving RSI together are conveying that upward drive in the pair is intensifying.

In the positive scenario, buyers may face nearby resistance from the 50.0% Fibo of 0.8329 before encountering a zone of resistance from the 100-period SMA at 0.8352 until the 200-period SMA at 0.8365. Overshooting this fortified barrier, which also holds the mid-Bollinger band, the bulls could then tackle upside constraints arising from the 50-period SMA at 0.8383 and the neighbouring 23.6% Fibo of 0.8397. Nonetheless, buying interest would need to endure to steer the price north of the 0.8416 high.

If upside drive starts to fade, initial support could transpire from the 61.8% Fibo of 0.8300 and the lower Bollinger band at 0.8288. Assuming the negative trajectory resumes, the price may find difficulty in diving past the support band between the 0.8271 low and the 76.4% Fibo of 0.8261. However, in the event sellers overrun these obstacles, traders’ focus could then turn towards the 0.8220 low and the 68-month trough of 0.8202. Should negative tendencies gain the upper hand, the bear’s aim may shift towards the 0.8142 level, which is the 123.6% Fibo extension of the 0.8202-0.8457 up leg.

Summarizing, EURGBP is exhibiting a broader neutral-to-bearish bias below the SMAs and the 0.8457 and 0.8478 highs. A strong dive beneath the 0.8300 barrier could reignite the fall in the pair towards the lower end of the short-term neutral trading range. That said, the price would need to propel beyond the 0.8416 high to rekindle any convincing odds for a bullish bias to return.