The disinflation trend continued in June. While this will not derail a July Fed hike, it increases ABN Amro’s conviction that this will be the final rate rise.
June disinflation will not derail a July Fed hike
While the Fed will welcome further disinflationary progress, the June CPI report is unlikely to prevent the FOMC from hiking by another 25bp when it meets on 24-25 July, given the stickiness in labour-intensive services inflation and the broader resilience in other macro indicators in the US.
However, the report gives us greater conviction that July will be the last hike of the current cycle, with a September hike looking unlikely assuming current data trends persist. Our base case continues to be for the Fed to start cutting rates next March. Still, we continue to see a risk that stickier services inflation keeps broader price growth above the Fed’s target in the medium term, with the risk therefore tilted towards rates staying restrictive for longer.
風險提示：本文所述僅代表作者個人觀點，不代表 Followme 的官方立場。Followme 不對內容的準確性、完整性或可靠性作出任何保證，對於基於該內容所採取的任何行為，不承擔任何責任，除非另有書面明確說明。
暫無留言。 來發表第一則觀點吧。