Economists at Commerzbank share their XAU/USD forecast.

Gold to move more or less sideways around $1,950 in the coming months

We expect Gold to move more or less sideways around $1,950 in the coming months.

Towards the end of the year, we continue to see some scope for an upward move (to $2,000). This is because the Fed's sharp rate hikes (by a total of 525 bps) are likely to be felt more strongly and it will become clear that the US economy is in recession. This, in turn, should put an end to any remaining rate hike speculation. 

If, in the coming year, a further decline in inflation and the weakness of the economy even make rate cuts more likely, Gold should head to its all-time high.