Gold price made a U-turn in the second half of the week and dropped toward $1,950. Economists at TD Securities analyze the yellow metal’s outlook.
The risk of higher-than-expected rates is real
The concern that the US central bank may well be forced to continue on its tightening cycle, as shown by the dots, convinced investors to reduce long exposure and to acquire new shorts as it become apparent that a July hike was a done deal. At the same time, outsized Oil price increases raised concerns that the rate of CPI deterioration may no longer be in the cards for the rest of this year.
Higher energy and grain prices following Russia's blockage of shipping routes, at a time when the economy keeps surprising to the upside, implies that the risk of higher-than-expected rates is real. That frame of mind, along with messaging from Mr. Powell that monetary policy will be data dependent, has driven Gold down to technical support near $1,950 recently.
Since data continues to be firm and other central banks continue to tighten, Gold will continue to be under pressure, with only a material weakening of economic conditions being a catalyst for a material move higher.
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