Current trend

The pound continues its uncertain dynamics in the GBP/USD pair, trading around the 1.2758 mark, and the July data on the Halifax housing price index, presented earlier, could not support the quotes of the British currency, confirming the continuing pressure on the national real estate market.

So, in monthly terms, the indicator decreased by 0.3%, not allowing the annual value to leave the negative zone (-2.4%), which turned out to be only slightly better than the June statistics of -2.6%. Investors are also alarmed by the rapid growth of the mortgage rate, which has already reached a maximum in the entire history of observations in the area of 7.68%. Some pressure on the position of the instrument is also exerted by statistics on retail sales from the British Consortium of Retailers (BRC), which at the end of July recorded a sharp slowdown from 4.2% to 1.8% year-on-year, which turned out to be worse than average forecasts.

As for the US currency, its quotes continue the local positive dynamics and during today's trading are around the mark of 102.0 points in the USD Index. Gasoline prices are once again becoming one of the main economic problems in the USA: several major publications noted that the cost of fuel is approaching the highs of the beginning of last year. According to the AAA statistical portal, the average price of a gallon is now 3.89 dollars, which is the highest value since October 2022, and in the central states, Washington and California, it even reaches 5.0 dollars. In this regard, investors expect today's publication of data on gasoline stocks, which may increase by 0.544M barrels after four consecutive weeks of contraction.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, the asset quotes are held within the global ascending channel with dynamic boundaries of 1.2500–1.3220, actively approaching the support line.

Technical indicators give a sell signal: fast EMAs on the alligator indicator expand the fluctuations range, and the histogram of the AO oscillator forms new descending bars, falling in the sales zone.

Support levels: 1.2670, 1.2420.

Resistance levels: 1.2900, 1.3130.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened after the reversal and continuation of the local decline of the asset, as well as the price consolidation below the local support level of 1.2670 with a target at 1.2420. Stop-loss – 1.2750. Implementation time: 7 days and more.

Long positions may be opened after the price consolidates above the local resistance level of 1.2900 with a target at 1.3130. Stop-loss – 1.2800.