USD/CNH tracks yield differentials almost as well as USD/JPY. Kit Juckes, Chief Global FX Strategist at Société Générale, analyzes FX markets – that are still watching central banks.

NOK/SEK has upside ahead of next week’s Norges meeting

Relative ECB and Fed rate paths suggest the euro remains vulnerable unless stronger European data emerges soon. EUR/GBP meanwhile, is tracking rate expectations very closely, but since we’ll get two more months’ worth of CPI data before the Sep 21 MPC meeting, a big lurch in expectations is unlikely, one way or the other.  

USD/CNH tracks 10-year yields nearly as well as USD/JPY. The Chinese authorities may not want a weaker currency from here, but it’s hard to see this trend turning downwards until US yields peak. A rising USD/CNH translates into more pressure on JPY, AUD and NZD. 

Finally, NOK/SEK is also tracking rate expectations closely. The Norges Bank is likely to raise rates by another 25 bps at next week’s meeting and that should be enough to keep the NOK bid