July month employment statistics from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, up for publishing at 01:30 GMT on Thursday, will be the immediate catalyst for the AUD/USD pair traders.

Market consensus suggests that the headline Unemployment Rate may remain unchanged at 3.5% on a seasonally adjusted basis whereas the Employment Change could rise by 15.0K versus the previous contraction of 32.6K. Further, the Participation Rate is expected to remain unchanged at 66.8% during the stated month.

Considering the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) latest pause in the rate hike trajectory, as well as the mixed inflation clues from Australia and unimpressive RBA Minutes, today’s Aussie inflation expectations and employment numbers appear more important for the AUD/USD pair.

Ahead of the event, FXStreet’s Yohay Elam mentioned,

Australia's monthly jobs report is a critical mover for the currency and may trigger high volatility. There is a greater chance of a fall than of a rise, given data patterns and market trends. 

How could the data affect AUD/USD?

AUD/USD takes offers to refresh the Year-To-Date (YTD) low during its eight-day losing streak amid broad US Dollar strength, as well as fears surrounding Australia’s biggest customer China. Furthermore, the recent hawkish Fed Minutes and the contrasting RBA Minutes also exert downside pressure on the Aussie pair ahead of the top-tier jobs report for July.

That said, today’s Australian employment report is less likely to work as a positive catalyst for the AUD/USD unless posting an extremely upbeat outcome. The reason could be linked to the market’s current favor to the US Dollar amid the hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) concerns and mixed US data. However, a knee-jerk reaction to the top-tier statistic can’t be ruled out.

Technically, the pair’s sustained downside break of an ascending support line from November 2022, now immediate resistance around 0.6490, directs AUD/USD bears toward the late 2022 swing low of around 0.6275