GOLD PRICE FORECAST: XAU/USD REBOUND APPEARS FRAIL BELOW $1,910, PMI IN FOCUS

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  • Gold Price edges higher towards short-term key resistance confluence despite firmer US Dollar.
  • Strong US Treasury bond yields, less acceptance for dedollarization at BRICS underpin Greenback’s run-up, challenging XAU/USD price.
  • Mixed concerns about China, Russia and hawkish Fed talks prod Gold traders.
  • Preliminary Purchasing Managers Index figures for August eyed for fresh impulse.

Gold Price (XAU/USD) portrays an upward grind around the $1,900 threshold, approaching the $1,910 resistance confluence, as market players brace for multiple central bankers’ speeches at the annual Jackson Hole Symposium event.

The precious metal remains cautiously positive after posting minor gains in the last two consecutive days even as the US Dollar remains firmer amid upbeat United States data and the hawkish commentary from the Federal Reserve (Fed). Adding strength to the recovery moves could be the mixed geopolitical and trade concerns, as well as positioning for Wednesday’s preliminary readings of the August month Purchasing Managers Indexes (PMIs) for major economies.

Gold Price drops as US Dollar traces firmer Treasury bond yields

Gold Price returns to the bear’s radar, after the week-start failure to lure the bulls, as the US Dollar regains buyer’s attention amid firmer United States data, hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) talks and upbeat Treasury bond yields.

US Dollar Index (DXY) prods the 10-week high marked Friday, around 103.60 at the latest, as improvements in the US Existing Home Sales for July and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for August joins firmer Treasury bond yields.

That said, the US Existing Home Sales came in as -2.2% MoM versus -3.3% prior while the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index matched -7.0 market forecast compared to -9.0% previous readings.

Apart from the firmer US data, hawkish statements from Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin also underpin the US Dollar’s rebound and weigh on the Gold Price. On Tuesday, Fed’s Barkin emphasized achieving the 2.0% inflation target while challenging the US recession concerns by stating, per Reuters, “If the US were to have a recession, it would likely be a ‘less-severe’ one.” The policymaker also added, “Fed must be open to the possibility that the economy will begin to reaccelerate rather than slow, with potential implications for the US central bank's inflation fight.”

It’s worth noting that the expectations of witnessing strong wage growth in the US, per the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s SCE Labor Market Survey, also favor the US Dollar’s retreat and capped the Gold Price.

It’s worth noting that the US 10-year Treasury bond yields rose to the highest level since late 2007, before retreating to 4.33% and hence flags the market’s indecision, which in turn challenges the XAU/USD traders


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